Submitted by Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management
Highs and Lows:
Not Like the Other:
Anecdote
On he walked. So many charts swirling in his mind, each its own story, all somehow connected, everything is. Major highs and lows are rare moments of wild hope or great fear, vivid, mistaken. He’d lived the 1989 Nikkei high, that euphoria, the hysteria, Japan’s Rockefeller Center purchase. He’d experienced every turn since. While it’s impossible to pick a high or low, the character of each is distinct.
In 1989, with the Imperial Palace appraised at a value exceeding the totality of California, was it so hard to imagine the Nikkei approached a major top? If you could have only been patient, was it not a near certainty that you’d have a chance to buy Japanese stocks far lower at some future date? It’s been 29yrs and we’re still nowhere close to that high.
At the turn of the century, with sock puppet billionaires and Y2K buildouts, what were the odds you’d never have a chance to buy equities materially cheaper? That’s always the question to ask.
It helps you step back from the month-to-month pressure to perform, and think about where you are in the cycle:
He considered today. Japan, Europe and Chinese stocks mired in multi-decade ranges.
The S&P 500 is the only major market to have defied gravity, lifted by the financialization of America’s economy, whereby artificially cheap interest rates fueled stock buybacks, and desperate pensions turbocharged a leveraged private equity boom.
With the Fed now reversing course, will we not have a chance to buy stocks materially cheaper?
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