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Your February Warren Buffett Update: 48 Stocks, And 33 Pay Dividends

James Brumley says in Kiplinger Investing:

"Rich people often get perpetually richer for a reason, so it could be worthwhile to study what billionaires and high-asset hedge funds are plowing their long-term capital into."

As any collection of stocks is more clearly understood when subjected to yield-based (dog catcher) analysis, this Buffett/Berkshire batch is perfect for the dogcatcher process. Here is the February 11 data for 33 dividend paying stocks in the Kiplinger-documented collection of 48 owned by Buffett's Berkshire-Hathaway firm.

Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Analysts Estimated 13.81% To 36.45% Net Gains For The Ten Top Buffett-Held Dividend Stocks Come February 2021

Five of ten Buffett-held dividend stocks by yield were also among the top ten gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1-year target prices. (They are tinted gray in the chart below). Thus, this yield-based forecast for these Buffett dogs was graded by Wall St. Wizards as 50% accurate.

Projections were based on estimated dividends from $1,000 invested in each of the highest yielding stocks and their aggregate one-year analyst median target prices, as reported by YCharts. Note: one-year target prices by lone analysts were not applied. Ten probable profit-generating trades projected to February 11, 2021, were:

General Motors Co. (NYSE:GM) netted $364.45 based on a median of estimates from twenty analysts, plus dividends. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 38% more than the market as a whole.

Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) was projected to net $363.68, based on a median of target price estimate from twenty-six analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risks 12% over the market as a whole.

Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) was projected to net $334.71, based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from twenty-six analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 9% less than the market as a whole.

Suncor Energy Inc. (NYSE:SU) was projected to net $292.28 based on a median of target price estimate from twenty-seven analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risks 10% more than the market as a whole.

Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE:DAL) was projected to net $214.13, based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from twenty-one analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 11% more than the market as a whole.

United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS) was projected to net $195.67, based on a median of target price estimate from twenty-eight analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risks 19% more than the market as a whole.

American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL) was projected to net $193.08, based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from twenty-one analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 63% over the market as a whole.

Synchrony Financial (NYSE:SYF) was projected to net $171.52, based on the median of target estimates from 21 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risks 21% more than the market as a whole.

Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE:BK) was projected to net $141.22, based on the median of target price estimates from twenty-one analysts plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 11% above the market as a whole.

Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE:GS) was projected to net $138.14, based on the median of target price estimates from twenty-nine analysts, plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risks 33% more than the market as a whole.

The average net gain in dividend and price was estimated at 24.09% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten stocks. These gain estimates were subject to average risks 21% more than the market as a whole.

Actionable Conclusion (11): (Bear Alert) Analysts Predicted One Buffett/Berkshire Top Gain Dog To See A 7.82% Loss By February 2021

The probable losing trade revealed by Y-Charts to 2021 was:

Moody's Corporation (NYSE:MCO) projected a loss of $78.21 based on the median of the target price estimates from sixteen analysts, including broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risks 21% more than the market as a whole.

The Dividend Dogs Rule

Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, "underdogs".

48 Buffett Holdings By Target Gains


33 Buffett Picks By Yield

Actionable Conclusions (12-21): 10 Top Buffett-Held Stocks By Yield

Top ten Buffett-held stocks selected 2/11/20 by yield represented six of eleven Morningstar sectors. Three dogs from the energy sector placed first, third and sixth. Top dog, Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY) [1], was followed by Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) [3], and the other placed eighth, Phillips 66 (PSX) [6].

In second place was the lone consumer defensive sector representative,The Kraft Heinz Co. (KHC) [2]. Two representatives from the consumer cyclical sector placed fourth and ninth, General Motors Co. (GM) [4], and Restaurant Brands International (QSR) [9].

Fifth and tenth places were claimed by two financial services representatives, Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) [4], and U.S. Bancorp (USB) [10]. Then, a lone industrials representative placed seventh, United Parcel Service (UPS) [7].

Finally, the remaining eighth slot was claimed by the lone real estate sector representative in the top ten, STORE Capital Corp (STOR) [8] to complete the Febuary Buffett/Berkshire top ten batch of dividend dogs, by yield.

Actionable Conclusions: (22-31) Top Ten February Buffett/Berkshire Batch Dogs Showed 12.45%-33.38% Upsides While (32) Three Down-Siders Emerged In February Bringing -0.41% To -7.56% Losses


To quantify top dog rankings, analyst median price target estimates provide a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield metrics, analyst mean price target estimates became another tool to dig out bargains.

Analysts Forecast A 21.85% Advantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced Buffett-Collected Dividend Stocks To 2021

Ten top Buffett/Berkshire Batch dogs were culled by yield for this update. Yield (dividend/price) results provided by YCharts did the ranking.

As noted above, top ten Buffet-chosen dividend dogs screened 2/11/20 showing the highest dividend yields represented six of eleven Morningstar sectors.

Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Predicted 5 Lowest-Priced Of The Top Ten Highest-Yield Buffett-Held Dogs (32) Delivering 23.85% Vs. (33 ) 19.57% Average Net Gains by All Ten Come February 2021

$5,000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten dividend Buffett-selected kennel by yield were predicted by analyst 1-year targets to deliver 21.85% more gain than $5,000 invested as $0.5k in all ten. The third lowest priced selection, General Motors Co. (GM), was projected to deliver the best estimated net gain of 36.44%.


The five lowest-priced top-yield Buffett-Picked dividend dogs as of February 11 were: Suncor Energy Inc. (SU); The Kraft Heinz Co. (KHC); General Motors Co. (GM); STORE Capital Corp. (STOR); Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY), with prices ranging from $29.41 to $41.17.

Five higher-priced Buffett-picked dividend dogs as of February 11 were: Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC); Coca-Cola Co. (KO);US Bancorp. (USB); Restaurant Brands International (QSR); Phillips 66 (PSX); United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS), whose prices ranged from $47.99.66 to $104.87.

The distinction between five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.

The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your Buffett/Berkshire Batch stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.

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