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Trading  | November 15, 2017

WTI/RBOB extended yesterday’s IEA-driven losses after a big crude build reported overnight by API, and DOE did nothing to assuage that with a 1.85mm crude build (admittedly smaller than API’s projected 6.5mm, but notably different from the 2.4mm draw expected), Gasoline also surprised with a build and WTI/RBOB extended losses. Additionally US Crude production rose to a new record high.

Bloomberg Intelligence energy analyst Fernando Valle notes:

Weaker demand drove a negative print for crude and product stocks. Strong refinery runs and rising crude exports were not enough to offset rising U.S. crude production. This latest increase, combined with reduced demand for refined products should put a damper on the oil-price recovery.

API

  • Crude +6.513mm  (-2.4mm exp) – biggest build in 9 months
  • Cushing -1.803mm – biggest draw in 4 months
  • Gasoline +2.399mm (-1.5mm exp) – biggest build in 3 months
  • Distillates -2.527

DOE

  • Crude +1.854mm (-2.4mm exp)
  • Cushing -1.504mm
  • Gasoline +894k (-1.5mm exp)
  • Distillates -799k

DOE data confirmed API’s reported builds in crude and gasoline (and a big drawdown in Cushing stocks)

US Crude production reached a new record high the previous week – not what OPEC hoped for – and last week’s big surge in the rig count suggests this is not about to slowdown as iot rose 25k b/d to a new record high…

 

WTI was hovering right at $55 heading into the DOE data and broiefly broke below on the print. RBOB is notably weaker…

“All of a sudden it seems that positives are in short supply for market bulls,” PVM Oil Associates analyst Stephen Brennock wrote in emailed report. “Yesterday’s slide is being compounded this morning by a fresh dose of price angst” sparked by the API report


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