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Trading  | June 16, 2017

A day after President Trump proclaimed Q2 GDP “numbers are going to be shockingly good,” The New York Fed has slashed its forecast for America’s growth to just 1.86%.

Wednesday…

“I think this quarter’s GDP numbers are going to be shockingly good given all the facts we’re seeing”

Thursday…

“I think some very good numbers are going to be announced, by the way, in the very near future, as to GDP,”

Friday…

Thanks to the collapse in housing data this morning, The New York Fed has slashed its growth expectations for Q2 GDP to just 1.86% (from 3% in March)…

NOTE – the factors weakening the forecast are ‘hard’ data points (red squares) while the surveys are adding to GDP.

It is hardly surprising that both The Atlanta Fed (which cut its guess from 3.2% to a series low 2.878%) and New York Fed are cutting their expectations as US macro data disappoints gravely…

Given the plunge in US Macro data, we wonder if President Trump meant the GDP numbers are going to be “shocking.”


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