While virtually nobody expects anything market shattering, or even moving, to be released during either Janet Yellen’s or Mario Draghi’s speeches tomorrow (recall from our preview what UBS said: “Don’t expect news at Jackson Hole. Chair Yellen has told us what she wants to about normalization, for now. Financial stability matters, but it isn’t new” and as such it will be “nothing to skip lunch over“), moments ago the full agenda of the 3-day central banker, tenured economist and assorted hanger-on symposium was released, and as expected both Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi are speaking, at 10am and 3pm ET respectively. What is strange is that while Yellen has only 30 minutes dedicated for her opening remarks, Draghi’s luncheon address is a full hour long.
Reminder of what bears look like at Jackson Hole
The full agenda of tomorrow’s key events is below. There are some additional panels held on Saturday which can be found on the Kansas City Fed’s website.
As another reminder, unlike previous years, few analysts expect anything material to be unveiled in tomorrow’s academic setting as the ECB got cold feet on unveiling tapering once the EURUSD approached 1.20.
Our full preview can be read here, and if that’s not enough, here is a cheat sheet from the WSJ on what to expect.
Talk of the Lodge
The theme of this year’s conference is “Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy”:
- Kansas City Fed President Esther George will host an opening reception Thursday evening, but the conference will kick off in earnest Friday morning.
- At 10 a.m. EDT Friday, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will deliver a speech on financial stability. Then, two research papers will be presented and discussed, followed by a panel discussion on international trade. Around 3 p.m. EDT, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will deliver a much-anticipated luncheon address.
- On Saturday, two more research papers will be presented and discussed, followed by another panel discussion.
Beyond the Agenda
The formal program will focus on serious economic questions, but a number of subplots will play out as well into the weekend:
- This is Ms. Yellen’s third Jackson Hole appearance in four years, but it could be her last as chairwoman. Her term is up in early February, and it isn’t known if President Donald Trump will reappoint her — plus, she hasn’t said if she would accept the nomination. Handicapping who might replace her could be a topic of discreet discussion during the gathering.
- Mr. Draghi’s Friday speech will be closely watched for clues about the path forward for the ECB’s quantitative-easing program, with potentially big implications for European and world markets.
- The Fed already has signaled it may begin to shrink its balance sheet as soon as September, but officials have been split over whether a rate increase should be on the agenda for later this year. In interviews on the sidelines of the conference, Fed officials are likely to drop more hints about the path forward for monetary policy.
- For the fourth year in a row, the liberal Center for Popular Democracy’s Fed Up campaign will be on hand for the Jackson Hole gathering. It organized a Thursday panel on why some economists think the Fed should consider raising its 2% annual inflation target and a Friday press conference “in which dozens of workers will rally in support of another term as chair for Janet Yellen with signs, costumes and theater,” the group said. Last year, several top Fed officials sat down with the activists.
- You can take the central bankers out of Washington, but it seems likely that events back in the capital will still be on their minds. Mr. Trump’s coming appointments to the Fed, possible changes to postcrisis regulations, the prospects for an overhaul of the tax code, the potential for unexpected shocks from trade disputes or a fiscal-policy mishap — they could all be topics of conversation in Wyoming.
It’s a star-studded attendance list for this year’s conference, at least for the world of central banking:
- Fed governors Lael Brainard and Jerome Powell are in attendance, along with many leaders from the Fed’s 12 regional banks, including New York Fed President William Dudley , Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans , Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester , Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan , Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari , San Francisco Fed President John Williams , Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and, of course, Ms. George.
- In addition to Mr. Draghi, the roster includes a number of foreign central bankers, including Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda , European Central Bank executive board member Benoît Coeuré , Bank of England deputy governor Ben Broadbent , Bank of Mexico Gov. Agustín Carstens , Riksbank Gov. Stefan Ingves and Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann .
- Several former Fed officials also will be in attendance, including former Fed Vice Chairmen Alan Blinder and Donald Kohn , former Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig , and former Fed governors Kevin Warsh and Randall Kroszner .
- The list also includes a handful of current and former government officials: Andrew Olmem , special assistant to Mr. Trump on financial policy on the National Economic Council; David Malpass , the Treasury undersecretary for international affairs; Keith Hall , director of the Congressional Budget Office; Jason Furman , former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Barack Obama; and Glenn Hubbard , who was chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President George W. Bush.
- And of course, the conference is full of high-profile academics, such as Harvard University’s Martin Feldstein (a former CEA chairman under President Ronald Reagan), Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff ; Stanford economist John Taylor ; Alan Auerbach of the University of California-Berkeley; and Kristin Forbes of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. –A number of those people — including Messrs. Hubbard, Taylor and Warsh – have been in the mix as Fed watchers try to predict who might replace Ms. Yellen if she doesn’t serve a second term at the Fed’s helm. National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn , who Mr. Trump has said is a top candidate to lead the Fed, won’t be in the audience.
- The attendance list has some notable absences: Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer isn’t among the participants this year, nor is Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker or St. Louis Fed President James Bullard .
Jackson Hole, 2016