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Trading  | December 26, 2017

Anyone who consumes even a modest dose of mainstream media is probably convinced by now that the GOP will lose both the Senate and House in 2018 followed by the White House in 2020 (assuming Trump is even able to avoid impeachment, that is).  As evidence of that fact, political pundits from MSNBC to CNN frequently point to the following chart of Trump’s plunging approval ratings…

…and the ‘stunning’ loss of Roy Moore in Alabama which Democrats apparently still view a ‘referendum’ on the Trump administration rather than a referendum on pedophilia.

Be that as it may, the British diplomats who advise Theresa May on how to manage the US-UK “special relationship” say the predictions of a Trump downfall are nothing more than wishful thinking and that the Prime Minister should prepare for the Trump presidency to be extended through 2024.  Per The Telegraph:

Donald Trump is on course to win re-election in 2020, senior British diplomats believe, as he approaches his first full year in office.


They think that despite a string of negative headlines the US president has largely kept his support base onside since entering White House.


Possible Democratic contenders are seen as either too old – such as Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden – or lacking in the name recognition needed to defeat Mr Trump.


There is also a belief the US president has curbed some of his most radical policy instincts since taking office, such as ignoring Nato or pulling out of Afghanistan.

Trump May

In addition to the irrelevant approval ratings, senior British diplomats also have doubts as to whether there are any viable Democratic front-runners who have what it takes to win.  Apparently they’re not convinced that a 76-year-old Socialist senator from Vermont nor a gaffe-prone Joe Biden, who has sought his party’s nomination twice (1988 and 2008) and failed, are great contenders.

Meanwhile, they think younger potential candidates – such as Cory Booker, the New Jersey senator, or Kamala  Harris, the California senator – are “yet to be tested” on the national political stage.  That said, we vaguely recall that similar predictions were made about a first-term senator from Illinois back in 2008.

And, while difficult to find, there are also some American journalists willing to admit that polling data is just as irrelevant now as it was in October 2016 and that predictions of Trump’s early demise are a bit premature.

They are not alone. Joshua Green, the author Devil’s Bargain: Steve Bannon, Donald Trump, and the Storming of the Presidency, believes the US president can win again.


Mr Green said: “He could absolutely win again in 2020. I don’t know why anybody, based on the track record of political predictions over the last three or four years, would presume to say otherwise.”


“If you look at his favourability ratings, his ‘is the country on the right track or wrong track’ numbers, it’s not that different now to what it was a year ago.”


“Trump was elected president with a very unpopular view [of him] nationally. It hasn’t gone that much worse.”


“A lot depends on where the country is in two-and-a-half years and what he is able to accomplish between now and then.”

To Green’s point, for those who have forgotten, here’s a look back at how the Washington Post saw the election playing out on October 22, 2016, just a few weeks before election day…

ABC Poll

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