On Sunday, Roger Federer did what many in recent years said was impossible, when he won his record, 8th Wimbledon title, defeating Croatia’s Cilic in straight sets.
Away from the court, the victory may be an ominous sign for EM bears. As Bloomberg’s Marc Cudmore said earlier this week, when he explained why he more focused on this Fed rather than the one run by Janet Yellen, “The Fed” has won seven of the past 14 championships. In every year he’s been victorious, both the MSCI EM Currency Index and the MSCI EM Equity Index have gained. By contrast, in five of the seven years he hasn’t finished triumphant, both those indexes have dropped.
That did not mark the end of “Fed vs Fed” spurious correlation.
As Bank of America’s Chris Flanagan writes in a note on Sunday, “curious as it may be, Federer’s trajectories have mirrored those of the FOMC’s rate path; steadily rising in the mid-2000s, pausing since the crisis, and gradually normalizing back over the last two years.”
Apparently with no more fundamental analysis left, BofA – bored and fascinated by tennis instead – writes that “this coincidence is likely to run into September… setting Federer up to reclaim his title, King of Queens, at Arthur Ashe Stadium for the sixth time.”
BofA’s conclusion: “Should this historic coincidence come to pass, it yet again clears the path for another historic shift in monetary policy, for the FOMC to start balance sheet reduction in September.”
And just like that, algos will now buy stocks on every flashing red Federer headline.