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Trading  | May 11, 2018

Update 3:  Reuters reports that the Argentine Central Bank spent $1 billion buying pesos today to support the collapsing currency… But, while it is off the lows, it remains down on the day and will close at a record low…

 

*  *  *

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Update 2: Freefall…

  • *ARGENTINE CENBBANK SAID TO INTERVENE AS PESO HITS 24/USD

As Bloomberg explains, the central bank’s policy error earlier this year, in which it cut the rate despite high inflation, has proved horribly costly. Macri’s whole project of economic reforms is at stake. Mention of the IMF brings back bad memories for Argentines and part of Macri’s appeal was that he promised economic competence. This latest mess shows how hard it can be to return an economy to orthodoxy after years of improvisation and price-controls. Luckily, the next election isn’t until next year and the opposition remains divided, but Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner hasn’t gone away.

*  *  *

Update 1: The Argentine Peso is now down 3% to a new record low and the central bank is desperate…

  • *ARGENTINE CENBANK SAID TO SELL $200M TO STEM PESO DROP

  • *ARGENTINE CENBANK SAID TO BUY MAY LEBACS AS YIELD HITS 50%

*  *  *

It appears that 1275bps of rate-hikes, hopes for an IMF bailout, and promises-promises from government are not enough to halt the capital flight from Argentina as the Peso just crashed back to a new record low over 23 per USD.

With 7-day repo-rtates at 40.00%, still the currency is collapsing…

Ironically, BNP Paribas says the Peso is too risky to even short, even taking into account the carry return…

“…we prudently decided to close our tactical short 1m NDF USDARS at 23.75,” strategists led by Gabriel Gersztein write in a report,

“If anything, this is not the time to be structurally positioned in ARS assets, in our view”

But JPMorgan is even more concerned, warning that the peso may face “disorder” next week if the nation’s central bank struggles to roll over about $30 billion of short-term notes set to expire.

As Bloomberg reports, the central bank is scheduled to auction notes known as Lebacs on Tuesday, in order to roll over about 674 billion pesos ($30 billion) of securities that mature on Wednesday.

The yield on Lebacs due June jumped to 43.6 percent in the secondary market today, forcing the central bank to intervene in secondary markets.

“A failure in rolling over the maturing Lebac stock would lead to a disorder bid on the dollar and renovated capital outflow,” JPMorgan analysts Diego Pereira and Lucila Barbeito wrote in a note.

“The recent measures by the central bank, together with Lebac rates above 40 percent suggest the authority would be able to roll a significant share of the stock.”

Yields on ARGENT bonds are spiking with the century bond prices tumbling.

“Funds are liquidating their positions to cover withdrawals and pressuring the rate,” said CMF Bank Chief Financial Officer Juan Jose Ciro.

“The local situation is still ugly: the spot exchange rate won’t budge and the rate is firm. We are seeing the tail-end of the crisis, when it starts to hit retail investor.”


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