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Stocks  | July 15, 2020

Even if you can’t stand President Trump, you’ve got to come to terms with the possibility that he could very well win reelection come November. I get it. Trump is arrogant, breaks every rule of social etiquette and frequently embarrasses us with his three-in-the-morning tirades. Yet for the implications that he has regarding presidential election stocks, you must prepare for all scenarios.

Indeed, as our country dives further into chaos, the case for Trump winning a second term is surprisingly viable. First, the biggest catalyst doesn’t even have anything to do with him but rather, the opposition. For four years, the shell-shocked Democrats had the opportunity to present a clear counterweight to Trump’s anachronistic old white guy paradigm … with another old white guy.

No matter what happens on Nov. 3, 2020, I’ll never understand this strategy, nor what Democratic voters were thinking. In my opinion, it’s a huge unforced error, thus necessitating a rethink about assumptions toward presidential election stocks.

Second, the Democrats made another costly miscalculation by breaking the cardinal rule of American politics: don’t scare white voters. This isn’t a racial comment as much as it is a mathematical reality. White people represent the biggest demographic group in the U.S. and that won’t change for a while. Thus, the left pushing for radical changes may not go over so well.

Third, and this is the real kicker for presidential election stocks, Americans are less educated than you think, which traditionally has helped Republicans. In fact, The Economist wrote that “Poorly educated voters hold the keys to the White House.”

Combine this dynamic with the nominal white majority and you have a very favorable voting base for Trump. Thus, you may want to consider keeping America great (again?) with these Trump-friendly presidential election stocks to buy:

  • Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT)
  • Raytheon Technologies (NYSE:RTX)
  • Vulcan Materials Company (NYSE:VMC)
  • H&R Block (NYSE:HRB)
  • AT&T (NYSE:T)
  • General Motors (NYSE:GM)
  • The Geo Group (NYSE:GEO)
  • Smith & Wesson Brands (NASDAQ:SWBI)

While you may wish to lash out against me, please note that I’m just the messenger. The Democrats have time to shore up their strategy. But if they fail, at least you’ll stand a chance of profitability with these stocks.

Presidential Election Stocks to Consider: Caterpillar (CAT)

As you know, Donald Trump has already made Caterpillar great again. Despite the severe impact of the novel coronavirus, CAT stock finds itself up over 50% since the former real estate mogul’s surprising victory four years ago. Therefore, this is all about keeping Caterpillar great. And a second term will go a long way for this most favorable of presidential election stocks.

Infamously, the President’s signature campaign promise was to build the wall. Referring to the U.S.-Mexico border wall, the project has generated much controversy. Certainly, the Democrats would be in no mood to entertain, let alone help fund such efforts. However, a second term would prove that Americans care about border security, putting the left in an awkward position.

Furthermore, President Trump would have every incentive to initiate whatever construction projects he can. Americans desperately need jobs and federal government contracts would go a long way in addressing this need. And with Caterpillar poised to benefit, I forecast a favorable environment for CAT stock if “The Donald” wins out.

Raytheon Technologies (RTX)

Predicting presidential election stocks to buy is an exercise fraught with risk, which is why I don’t do it often. However, should Trump get his second term, one of the sectors that is most likely to enjoy upside is the defense industry. For one thing, the President loves the military — well, not enough to join it of course. Nevertheless, he spearheaded the launch of the Space Force, America’s sixth military branch.

This underlying patriotism should serve companies like Raytheon Technologies well. Obviously, the coronavirus hasn’t dampened our adversaries’ enthusiasm to troll and test our military readiness. From my perspective, having a bullish, outspoken leader like Trump would probably raise morale among our troops. And RTX stock would rise higher under the assumption that the President won’t back down from a challenge.

Moreover, the White House wouldn’t have to play nice on a possible second term. In the President’s dealings with China, he had to mitigate his instincts, especially in an election year, where a hurting American economy would be the last thing he needs.

With that pesky detail out of the way, the President can go full Trump. And that would be an excellent catalyst for RTX stock.

Vulcan Materials Company (VMC)

A classic example among presidential election stocks to buy under a conservative administration, Vulcan Materials Company happens to be a name that wasn’t quite made great again. Instead, VMC stock is roughly level with where it was when Donald Trump first won his White House gig. Obviously, Trump would be eager to change this narrative for Vulcan.

Like Caterpillar, I see significant upside for VMC stock. Naturally, the Trump administration’s “America First” policy augurs well for domestic construction projects. But here’s the thing about Vulcan — very few people expect Trump to win. When people look at the opinion polls, they see former Vice President Joe Biden beating Trump by wide margins.

In many ways, winning a second term is much less likely than Trump emerging victorious the first time around. So if he pulls off the impossible, expect “bigly” gains for VMC stock.

Finally, Vulcan could act as a hedge. According to Biden’s campaign website, he’s focusing on rebuilding American infrastructure. If that’s true, VMC could claim victory no matter who sits in the Oval Office.

H&R Block (HRB)

Out of the presidential election stocks to buy on this list, H&R Block features the most convoluted narrative. So, just hear me out for a moment.

Early into his administration, President Trump introduced significant changes to the U.S. tax code. Apparently, the changes brought simplification to our taxes. I didn’t see it that way because any adjustment requires an acclimatization from the taxpayer’s perspective. However, such modifications theoretically benefit HRB stock.

In my prior discussions about the tax preparation firm, I cited the significant catalyst of the gig economy. Essentially another term for independent contractors, gig workers are not tethered to traditional employment arrangements. Instead, they can work for multiple organizations and are usually paid by work products submitted as opposed to time spent.

But because of this distinction, those who participate in the gig economy must submit different tax forms than your standard W2 employee. These forms can be complicated, especially for first timers, thus aiding the case for HRB stock.

Further, the novel coronavirus has made most people temporarily a gig worker. If they choose this occupation permanently, they will benefit most from a President that values entrepreneurialism. Thus, consider H&R Block if Trump emerges victorious.

AT&T (T)

Frankly, I wouldn’t label AT&T as an example of presidential election stocks to buy. Rather, I believe T stock is relevant no matter who is in charge. As one of the few companies that can credibly roll out a 5G infrastructure in the U.S., AT&T represents a vital cog in our technological arms race with China.

In that sense, T stock would benefit from a Trump victory. However, even if Biden beats him, I think AT&T stakeholders can sleep easy.

But as a stakeholder myself, I know I will sleep easier if Trump wins. That’s because the incumbent will likely benefit AT&T holistically. As you might have guessed, I’m referring to CNN, which the telecommunications giant owns. While the cable news network frequently criticizes the President, they also love him for it due to record ratings.

Trust me — if anybody else controlled the White House, the ratings would go nowhere. But Trump, he is just … wow. Love him or hate him, he knows how to create a scene. And four more years of that is wonderful news for T stock.

General Motors (GM)

As you might know from my previous writings, I’m not a big fan of American cars. Apparently, neither is President Trump. When he used to drive himself back in his Apprentice days, he loved showing off his Mercedes-Benz SLR McLaren. What can I say? “The Donald” has excellent taste.

But as President of the United States, he’s obligated to show love to Detroit. This brings our discussion of presidential election stocks to General Motors. If Trump wins, you gotta love GM stock if only for the nationalism angle. Honestly, his administration can’t fail General Motors or rival Ford (NYSE:F) for that matter.

And let’s not forget that Japan bombed Pearl Harbor, an event that in the crazy world according to Trump happened last week. Apparently, based on former national security advisor John Bolton’s tell-all book, the President’s time capsule mentality disrupted key global negotiations. Therefore, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see Trump promoting anti-Japanese import policies that bolster American auto production.

If I may be blunt, I’m not sure if such policies would help lift the quality of American cars. However, perception is king in American politics. So, keep a close eye on GM stock as we head into November.

The GEO Group (GEO)

If you thought that writing about presidential election stocks that would perform well under a second Trump administration was awkward, try discussing The GEO Group, especially in the present social climate. Honestly, I’m extremely uncomfortable bringing up GEO stock because of what it represents — for-profit private prisons.

Oh, technically, GEO is a real-estate investment trust with a specialty in “evidence-based rehabilitation.” What this really means is that GEO stock is a platform for, shall we say, sophisticated private investors to exploit members of at-risk communities.

Yes, they may be prisoners serving their time for their indiscretions against society. It’s just that most people don’t feel comfortable monetizing this service.

Despite the incredible ugliness associated with GEO, I think it provides an important barometer for this political race. As you know, Trump bills himself as the “law and order” President. Thus, if Wall Street believes that he’ll win, GEO stock should swing higher.

Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI)

Among the presidential election stocks on this list, Smith & Wesson Brands is the toughest nut to crack. Therefore, I’m putting SWBI stock on the bottom.

It’s not that I don’t like SWBI stock. When this crisis struck, I’ve been bullish on all things firearms related. For publicly traded gun companies, the fundamental narrative is incredibly straightforward: a record number of Americans bought firearms for protection.

Frankly, I applaud them. Because if radical Democrats defund the police, individual citizens must rely on their own resources to protect themselves. But this is also why SWBI stock is a name to buy if Biden wins the White House.

However, it’s possible that Smith & Wesson still has a place in a second term for Trump. Primarily, it’s not a stretch to assume all hell will break loose if he pulls it off. Yes, he will bring law and order but that may not be for a while.

Second, a victorious Trump is an emboldened one. With nothing to lose in a second term, he could help reverse restrictive federal gun laws. Perhaps, he could also pressure liberal states to loosen theirs.

Yeah, I know — guns are evil. But in this crazy time, law-abiding American citizens need anything that will help them survive. And I couldn’t think of two better friends than Smith & Wesson.

A revolutionary initiative is helping average Americans find quick and lasting stock market success.

275% in one week on XLF - an index fund for the financial sector. Even 583%, in 7 days on XHB… an ETF of homebuilding companies in the S&P 500. 

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